From Quito and the province of Azuay), and, above all, given the informed intuitions Last Database we had in this regard. Azuay, traditionally a stronghold of Correismo and where Pérez had his best electoral performance in the first round of 2021, helps illustrate the Last Database argument more clearly. Arauz obtained 21% in the first round, 23 points less than what Moreno achieved in 2017. The reasons are obvious: in Azuay, Pérez obtained 42% (Hervas, by the way, reached 15%), and Lasso achieved 14% (less than half of the 32% that it Last Database reached in 2017 in the same province).
In other words, the Last Database votes of the strong bastion of Correismo in the southern Sierra escaped Arauz in the direction of Pérez. In the absence of Pérez in the second round, Was it not reasonable to suppose that the majority of the partition Last Database of those Pérez votes –we underline “majority”– would “return” to Correista inertia or would become null, as the Pachakutik candidate promoted? What was not reasonable, given the trajectory of Azuay's Correísta and the rest of the informed intuitions, was to suppose that in the Last Database absence of Pérez, the majority of those votes would go to Lasso. This is the intuitive explanation of the notion of "general trend" or "reasonable expectation.
Most of those votes Last Database would go to Lasso. This is the intuitive explanation of the notion of "general trend" or "reasonable expectation." most of those votes would go to Lasso. This is the Last Database intuitive explanation of the notion of "general trend" or "reasonable expectation." In the second round, Lasso obtained 187,000 votes in Azuay. It is up for discussion whether or not that is exactly what he "had" to pull out (and several forecasts suggested it was). Arauz, on the other Last Database hand, reached 146,000 votes and there were 151,000 invalid votes. The null vote, in Azuay, a Correísta.